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Carl Richards is a certified financial planner in Park City, Utah, and is the director of investor education at The BAM Alliance. My low-tech approach made sense for years. But my strategy — and the jokes about weather forecasters — may one day be a thing of the past. Even as you yell at your TV during the weather segment of your local newscast, forecasts are actually getting more accurate, as a story in The Seattle Times points out:.

Three-day forecasts today are as good as hour forecasts were in the s. The average error in hurricane-track prediction has been slashed by two-thirds since the early s. But we are getting better. This improvement is a result of computer models that collect all the data — temperatures, clouds and winds — and put it into mathematical equations.

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The result was simulations that beat human forecasting during a hour window. These models were built by looking for and identifying variables that offered some predictive value.

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Over time, as more of these factors were identified and fed into the model, the accuracy of the forecast improved. We have been attempting to do the same thing with the stock market. We have spent endless amounts of time, money and human capital trying to identify variables that help predict market behavior.

Still, none of them have much predictive value, particularly over the short term.

And guessing is no way to make investment decisions. The pioneering investor Ben Graham is said to have described the market as being hard to predict: Another reason is that investing is not a physical science.

On any given day, the stock market represents the collective feeling of all of us. More often than not, those feelings are based on fear or greed. And it is only in hindsight that we recognize that mistake. So while on one level human behavior seems predictable e.

There is no proven, market-predicting model hidden in a computer that only a few people have access to. The facts have remained the same.

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Over time think 10, 15, or 20 years , stocks typically do better than bonds, and bonds typically do better than cash. Low expenses are typically a good sign of future relative performance. We also know that a diversified portfolio will help protect you from the variability of the stock market. Personal finance features and news coverage from can now be found on the Your Money page. How faith can affect mental health therapy, freshening up a kitchen for a home sale, creating your own personal weather station and other consumer-focused news from The New York Times.

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Clear this text input. By Carl Richards June 17, Personal Finances , Stocks and Bonds. Archive Select Month July June May April March February January December November October September August July June May Recent Posts About Bucks Personal finance features and news coverage from can now be found on the Your Money page.

How Faith Can Affect Therapy How faith can affect mental health therapy, freshening up a kitchen for a home sale, creating your own personal weather station and other consumer-focused news from The New York Times.